PCL Market Snapshot: ‘Recovery mode` continues as sales prices bottom out

Date Published 06 December 2017

Price declines are bottoming out as transaction numbers pick up, says Knight Frank – and there's even been some price growth in the £5m-£10m bracket…

The average property price in Prime Central London is now 2.2% lower than it was a year ago, but the latest from Knight Frank indicates that there's been a slight rise in the £5m-£10m bracket – it's the first positive annual number since 2015.

Whats more, the three months to November delivered flat price inflation across the board; it's the first non-negative quarter since April 2016, meaning that the annual -2.2% is the least-dramatic rate of decline since August 2016.

• Annual price change: -2.2%
• Quarterly (3 months to November) price change: 0%
• Sales volume: +10% in the six months to November

Overall, the PCL sales market 'is moving towards recovery mode', says the agency, with continued signs that price declines are bottoming out as asking prices align with what buyers are willing to pay.
It looks as though the top-end is leading any recovery in price performance: Average prices for homes worth between £5 and £10 million were 0.4% higher this November, while average values for £10m+ homes were -2.1% on the year, a more modest rate of decline than the -3.1% fall for homes worth between £1m and £2m.

10% more deals were done in PCL in the six months to November, according to LonRes data, although Knight Frank says that it 'doesn't expect sales volumes to improve in a meaningful way until the market adjusts fully to higher transaction costs'.

PCL's 'recovery mode' has seen 'a cautious re-emergence of buyers in the market'. KF reports a 2.8% rise in the number of new prospective buyers registering between January and October 2017 compared to the same period last year, while viewing levels were up 8%.
But prime stock levels are slipping; the number of Rightmove listings above £2m in PCL between January and October 2017 was down by about 17% compared to the same period in 2016…

Source: Prime Resi 6th December 2017